Monthly Report November 2025

US equity markets extended their longest winning streak in four years in October. The rally was fuelled by sustained enthusiasm over artificial intelligence, easing interest rates and a thaw in US-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 rose 2.3%, setting its 36th record high of the year at 6,891 points and marking a sixth consecutive month of gains – the longest run since August 2021. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite performed even more strongly, climbing 4.7% for a seventh straight monthly advance, last seen in January 2018.
Initial concerns about overheating in the AI sector and tentative signs of labour-market cooling quickly receded, as robust earnings, heavy investment in data centres and semiconductors, additional monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and progress toward a temporary trade accord with China buoyed sentiment.

Europe also delivered positive returns: the STOXX 600 gained 2.5%, the DAX added 0.3%, and Switzerland’s SLI rose 1.6%. In Asia, the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new prime minister triggered a surge in the Nikkei 225, which jumped 16.6%. Taiwan (+9.3%) and South Korea (+19.9%) also posted strong gains, while the Shanghai Composite rose 1.9%.

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has advanced 16.3%, the Nasdaq Composite 22.9% and the Russell 2000 11.2%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 is up 12.7%, the DAX 20.3% and the SLI 4.9%. Spain stands out with a 38.3% rally in the IBEX 35. In Asia, South Korea (+71%), Vietnam (+40%) and Japan (+31%) have been among the strongest performers. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has gained 29%, and the Shanghai Composite 18%.

On currency markets, the Swiss franc remained firm. The euro closed October at CHF 0.928, down from CHF 0.939 at the end of 2024. Against the US dollar, the franc is still up roughly 11% year-to-date, though the Greenback staged a partial recovery during the month.

The rally in precious metals paused in late October. Yet gold remains more than 50% higher since January, silver over 65%, and a major gold-mining ETF (GDX) has more than doubled, returning +112%.

Notable shifts emerged in bond markets: French 10-year yields (3.42%) edged above those of Italy (3.38%). German bonds yielded 2.64%, Spain 3.14%, and Greece 3.30%. Swiss government bonds continue to stand out for their exceptionally low yields: 10-year Swiss bonds were at 0.19%, versus roughly 0.50% on 10-year CHF swap rates. US 10-year Treasuries closed October at 4.10%, down from 4.57% at the start of the year.

Artificial intelligence remains the central market theme, and with it, constant comparisons to the dot-com era. The rapid ascent of shares linked to the AI ecosystem has prompted bubble warnings.

We view today’s investment boom in AI infrastructure as different from the excesses of the late 1990s. Yes, valuations in some corners look demanding – but the underlying dynamics diverge materially. Major technology firms are deploying capital aggressively to protect competitive positions and open future revenue streams, and they are doing so largely on the back of strong cash flows rather than debt. Data-centre utilisation rates are high, rather than supply far outstripping demand. Meanwhile, a more supportive macro backdrop and a lower interest-rate environment reduce systemic risk.

In the race to monetise AI, a new terminology has entered the lexicon: “agentic AI”. These systems no longer merely respond to commands but can set goals, plan and execute tasks autonomously, interacting directly with digital or physical environments – from sending emails to steering logistics robots. Such capabilities could soon render today’s AI interfaces obsolete.

A bull market driven by optimistic earnings expectations is not per se a bubble. A true bubble emerges when most investors are convinced that “this time is different”. Today, scepticism and negative headlines remain widespread – a backdrop in which the emergence of a bubble is hard to imagine. Or, as the old market adage has it: a bubble is simply a bull market you are not invested in.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicates the US economy grew a robust 3.9% in Q3. Inflation remains above the 2.0% target at roughly 3%, yet underlying pressures continue to ease. Softening shelter and energy costs and signs of a cooling labour market should exert further downward pressure. We therefore anticipate another rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December.

Seasonality currently offers an additional tailwind: November has historically been among the strongest months for equities, typically softer for oil, supportive for the US dollar – and favourable for gold between mid-November and February.

Against this backdrop, we remain cautiously constructive on equity markets. Growth remains resilient as inflation recedes – a textbook “Goldilocks” scenario. Fiscal support from the US tax package is beginning to take effect, while further monetary easing should continue to underpin demand. Corporate earnings have broadly exceeded expectations this quarter.
Large-capitalisation US technology names remain central. We also see opportunities in the utilities sector: defensively positioned to weather volatility, yet poised to benefit from surging electricity demand driven by the AI revolution – not least the emergence of agentic AI.
We maintain a positive view on resource-rich regions – including Australia, Latin America and parts of Africa – given their strategic importance to the so-called rare earths supply chain (which, despite the name, is anything but rare).

On currency markets, we expect a stronger US dollar and a softer euro. The Swiss franc should appreciate slightly against the euro but weaken modestly versus the dollar. The Japanese yen screens attractively undervalued on purchasing-power parity metrics. A more pro-growth stance from the new government could spur higher rates and capital repatriation – while the yen remains a proven hedge in risk-off episodes. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar should benefit from a more supportive backdrop.

We maintain a meaningful allocation to precious metals – primarily gold, with a smaller silver exposure. After a surge from roughly USD 3,100 in mid-May to near USD 4,400 in mid-October, the recent consolidation appears healthy. As long as support around USD 3,800 holds, upside potential remains intact.

In fixed income, we favour medium-duration sovereign bonds as a stabilising component in portfolios. Lower inflation and continued monetary accommodation argue for the segment. In credit, we prefer investment-grade over high-yield instruments, while selectively viewing emerging-market debt as attractive. We remain more cautious on less liquid private-credit and private-debt strategies.