VietNamNet Bridge – In a TPP without the US, powerful member countries will benefit most, according to economist Nguyen Tri Hieu.
The other 11 member countries of TPP have decided to move ahead without the US, which once took the leading role in the deal.
Vietnam will be able to benefit from TPP, not only in trade. The Vietnamese economy will have to change to conform to TPP’s regulations once the deal is made.
However, the negative side of TPP-11, or the TPP without the US, is the modest share of TPP in global trade. A TPP with the US accounted for 40 percent of global trade, of which the US alone accounts for 20 percent. Without the US, the figure would be 20 percent.
“However, 20 percent is still a considerable market share though it is smaller than initially planned,” Hieu said.
The expert went on to say that Vietnam would lose many advantages because of the absence of the US, Vietnam’s largest export market.
Vietnam will not lose the entire market because it still has bilateral trade agreements with the US, but the benefits will be lessened.
Le Quoc Anh from the Hanoi Economics University also said the expectation that the least developed economy would get the biggest benefits has sunk with the demise of TPP-12.
Of the 11 members of the new TPP, there is no leading country as in the TPP-12.
As the US no longer is part of the TPP, member countries will focus on exploiting the remaining countries. In TPP-12, experts believed that the beneficiaries would be small countries. But now, the biggest beneficiaries are the strong economies in TPP.
Vietnam is a relatively closed economy with the smallest GDP among the 11 member countries. With such a position, when joining TPP-11, Vietnam will have to change to satisfy the requirements of TPP, from institutional changes to labor and trade unions.
Of the 11 member countries, Hieu said that Australia, Japan and Canada would benefit the most. Though Japan is the largest economy, Hieu thinks Australia may come forward and act as the ‘leader in the choir’.
Government officials all affirm that the US’s withdrawal from TPP may make certain impacts on Vietnam’s short-term plans but will not affect the country’s long-term goals and integration direction.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai, who is also secretary general of the inter-sectoral steering committee for international integration, stressed that the TPP is only one among many multi-lateral cooperative frameworks that Vietnam joins as part of its international process.