2017 Vietnam Outlook by World Bank


5 years of macro stability, including exchange rate and inflation, and FX reserves are rising
– 6.2% GDP growth in 2016 is lower than target, but very commendable,
– Especially manufacturing growing at 11%, mostly all exports (mainly thanks to FDI) (Michel’s top plays: steel, HPG, HSG, and cement HT1)
– Tourism also very strong with 7% growth (Michel: play VJA, ACV, not so much Vietnam Airlines (HVN))
– Inflation in 2016 is mostly led by healthcare (gov raised prices)
– Average 5 year fiscal deficit at 5.5% of GDP, expects 6.5% for 2016 and forecasts 6.0% for 2017 (gov targets 4.7% excluding principal repayments)
– Domestic demand is the way to play, driven by urbanisation and wage growth (Michel’s top plays: MWG, PNJ, VNM, QNS)
– Vietnam now #82 in ease of doing business, beating Indonesia (91) and Philippines (99)
– Risks: antitrade sentiment, world growth slowdown, delayed reforms (I think that’s always likely)
– Challenges: SOE and bank reforms
– Future looks POSITIVE for sure, tell me another country that does as well as Vietnam?

Source: World Bank

Photo: CBR Investment AG